Some thoughts on the Wisconsin senate race.

   By Donna Cole


 In May I wrote a column supporting Mark Neumann in the Republican senate primary. As time has gone on and we get closer to the primary, I must admit I have wavered somewhat in my support of Neumann. The reason is because I have gone from supporting the candidate I personally like the most to asking which one can beat Tammy Baldwin ?


 I know many others are asking this, and judging by the latest Marquette Law School poll many of us don't know. Here is how the poll breaks down among likely primary voters (I will only use likely voter numbers going forward because they are more accurate than registered voter numbers.).

Fitzgerald        13%
Hovde              20
Neumann         18
Thompson       28
Undecided      17
Don't know       4

 The folks who are supporting one candidate or another because of personal likability are already locked in. As you can see, Thompson has the lead. But with 21% either undecided or don't know this close to the election, that tells me a lot of right leaning voters are still trying to figure out who they think can beat Baldwin and putting their personal feelings aside because like me, they are thinking beyond the primary. (I'm not going to get into who is more or less conservative here. All four candidates, Fitzgerald, Hovde, Neumann, and Thompson, are solid right wingers. Any of them are better than Baldwin.)


 Before we get deeper into the Marquette numbers, we need to look at Baldwin's campaign and what she has going for her. Then ask what will it take to beat her ?


 First thing I need to address is this idea I have heard from some Republicans that she can't win a statewide election with the implication being because Baldwin is a lesbian. To paraphrase what I heard from a Democrat operative; "Tammy's sexuality is not an issue, those who wouldn't vote for her because of that wouldn't vote for her regardless." In other words, only social conservatives are bothered by this and they will vote Republican anyway. I also understand there is some belief that she is a lesbian might turn off black voters. You can forget about that too. Those black voters are going to turnout for President Obama and most will vote a straight Democrat ticket.


 Another thing to add here, many white women (who over 50% already lean Democrat) will vote for a woman over an man regardless of party just because it is another woman. This may sound crazy, but it is a known fact proven by years of polling data. So, Tammy has this going for her too.


 Baldwin is a good solid candidate, she cannot be written off or taken for granted. She doesn't come off like most far left liberals as a wacko. She is no Dennis Kucinich with regard to her demeanor. She is attractive, well spoken, and sharp as a tack. If I was Democrat operative and looked around the state for somebody to run for this senate seat, Tammy would be my choice without a single doubt, and I'd be thinking,"We got a dam good shot here." I want to reiterate this to my Republican friends who can't seem to get it. It is not that Baldwin is all they got or that she is the just best they can come up with. She can win legitimately.


 Money is not going to be an issue for Baldwin either. Last quarter, she raised over $2 million and had nearly $4 million on hand. Not to get too far off track here, but this is a good time to add this. I was doing some opposition research on Baldwin's fundraising (Opensecrets.org) and these are some groups who through their political PACs donated the maximum of $10,000 directly to her campaign. (This is just a partial donor list, and remember these PACs can also spend unlimited amounts supporting her outside of her campaign.)

United Food & Commercial Workers Union
American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME)
American Federation of Teachers
American Postal Workers Union  (AFL-CIO)
Intl Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (AFL-CIO)
Operating Engineers Union (AFL-CIO)
Women's Political Committee
NARAL Pro-Choice America

Here are a few other honorable mentions.

The Credit Union National Association (CUNA) gave $7,400 in PAC money and $5,000 in individual donations, total $12,400.

The Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund gave $5,000 in PAC money and $6,400 in individual donations, total $11,400.

Council for a Livable World, an anti-war, anti-national defense, and no-nukes group, gave $4,200 in PAC money and individual donations of $10,000, total $14,200.

 I just wanted to point this out so the next time you hear one of your liberal friends going on and on about the Koch brothers and out of state money coming in to back Republicans, well there you go, Tammy is up to her eyeballs in special interest, out of state money too.


 So, Tammy is not going to be short on cash and the next thing to look at is where she will have to spend her money. What are to two largest media markets, which makes them the most expensive, in Wisconsin ? Milwaukee and Madison. She is going to win Milwaukee County easy, and she has no chance in the surrounding counties, with the exception of Racine, so she really doesn't have to spend much money in this market. In the same way, Baldwin has Dane County locked up, so not much spending there either. She can focus most of her campaign spending on the rest of the state.


 The most important factor Baldwin has going for her is that it is a presidential election year, Obama can drag her over the top on his coattails. Here are the heads up presidential numbers from the Marquette poll.

Obama        50
Romney       45
Undecided    3
Would not vote       1
Someone else      1
Don't know         0
Refused             1

 While I do believe that Wisconsin is in play, and Obama will have to spend some money and effort here, I think it is more likely than not Obama will win this state. Wisconsin hasn't gone for a Republican since Reagan and if you look at these numbers, most folks have made up their minds. The only way Romney beats Obama is to make a lot of people change their minds. Now, if Romney picks Paul Ryan as his VP, that changes everything in Wisconsin. But at least for now, I have to operate on the assumption that will not happen. (I want to be clear, I am not writing Romney off here. I think he can win Wisconsin, even without Paul Ryan, and will beat Obama in the general election with or without the state. But winning here would make things a lot easier.)

 Given all this, how do the Republicans beat Baldwin ? Let's look at the state of the electorate, back to the Marquette poll.

Q: Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?

Republican  30
Democrat 32
Independent 35
Other/No preference  1
Don't know  1
Refused  1

Party identification including those who lean toward one party or another

Republican  45
Democrat  46
Neither/Just Independent  8
Don't know/Refused  2

 What do these numbers tell us ? While 35% claim to be independent, the reality is that most lean one way or the other and the state has a near even partisan divide. The results of the last few statewide elections confirm this. It is that 8% who claim to be truly independent where you find your margin of victory.


 Now, we get to the tough part. If it is likely Obama will win Wisconsin how does a Republican have a chance ? The candidate is going to have to get some these independents who vote for Obama to then split their ticket. You do this two ways, first by defining Baldwin, second by appealing to these independent voters. More numbers, look at Baldwin's favorables.

Favorable  30%
Unfavorable 35
Haven't heard enough  32
Don't know  2

 32% haven't heard enough yet to form an opinion of Baldwin, this leaves a lot of room to define her. Here are four sets of numbers you use to define her. Remember, these numbers are from the Marquette poll among Wisconsinites.

Q: How important do you think it is that Congress and the President act to significantly reduce the federal budget deficit?

Extremely important  50%
Very important  32
Only somewhat important  15
Not at all important   2
Don't know  1

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the health care legislation passed by Barack Obama and Congress in 2010?

Approve  44%
Disapprove 49
Don't know  7
Refused  1

Q: In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more?

Higher taxes, more services  43%
Lower taxes, fewer services  50
Don't know 5
Refused  2

Q: In general would you describe your political views as ?

Very conservative 10%
Conservative  33
Moderate  31
Liberal  17
Very liberal  6
Don't know 2

 These numbers show us that majorities think the federal budget deficit is a major problem, they don't like Obamacare, and they want lower taxes. You point out Baldwin voted for the trillion dollar failed stimulus, Obamacare, and she wants to jack up taxes. The last question on political views is probably the most important. It goes right along with national polling, people who claim to be conservative outnumber liberals roughly 2 to 1. Moderates tend to lean Democrat, that is how they win elections when liberals are so badly outnumbered. Baldwin must be defined as the radical far left liberal she is to turn these moderates off. You show she has one of the most liberal voting records in Congress, even among Democrats. If she can make herself look like a moderate to them, she will win this election easy. But, in this same respect, the Republican cannot look to far off the reservation on the right side either.


 Let's move on to the heads up numbers and the candidate's favorability. I am not worried so much about favorable verses unfavorable, as long as they are not too lopsided, I am more interested how many people say they haven't heard enough because that shows how much room a candidate still has to define himself.

Thompson v. Baldwin

Baldwin  43%
Thompson  48
Undecided   5
Would not vote  1
Don't know  2
Refused  1

Favorable 39%
Unfavorable 43
Haven't heard enough  14
Don't know  3

 Important things to take away from Tommy's numbers. He has a clear lead with only 5% undecided. This means that folks answering this poll who said they would vote for Obama are already willing to split their ticket and vote for Tommy. A problem is that only 14% say they haven't heard enough about Tommy to form an opinion of him. What this means is that he doesn't have much wiggle room in defining himself, but on the other hand, Baldwin doesn't have much room to define him either. Good or bad, everybody knows Tommy.

Neumann v. Baldwin

Baldwin  44
Neumann  44
Undecided  6
Would not vote  1
Don't know  4
Refused  1

Favorable 23%
Unfavorable 34
Haven't heard enough 38
Don't know 4

 Neumann is tied with Baldwin but there is more room in the undecided/ don't know area that can go either way. With 38% saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion of him, he has a lot of room to work with, but so does Baldwin. I think Mark is benefiting in this poll because his name is well known statewide and all the outside conservative groups supporting him.

Hovde v. Baldwin

Baldwin  44%
Hovde 41
Undecided  9
Would not vote  1
Don't know  4
Refused  1

Favorable 21%
Unfavorable 25
Haven't heard enough 49
Don't know 4

 I can explain Hovde's numbers pretty simply. For the roughly $5 million he has already spent 49% still don't know who he is. And with all that money spent, Baldwin is still beating him.

Fitzgerald v. Baldwin

Baldwin 45%
Fitzgerald 40
Undecided  7
Would not vote  1
Don't know 5

Favorable 17%
Unfavorable 23
Haven't heard enough 55
Don't know 4

 The thing with Assembly Speaker Fitzgerald is that he has a huge amount of room to work with because literally nobody knows who he is. This can also work against him. To boil it down, Jeff will have to run as Scott Walker. He will have to let the outside groups do the dirty work against Baldwin and campaign as the fresh faced guy who will bring Walker like reforms to Washington. Not a bad plan, but zero margin for error because everybody has made their mind up about the governor. Here are Walker's numbers, and they are pretty good considering all that has happened. You know, that whole recall thing.

Gov. Walker

Favorable 50%
Unfavorable 45
Haven't heard enough 3


 I think it is possible for any of these four candidates to beat Baldwin. However, if Obama wins Wisconsin by over 5 points, say in the 8% range, Tammy will be our next senator because a margin that large will carry her over the top. (I find it surprising how many Republicans I talk to can't seem to connect these two elections. It is like some think the senatorial election is over here, on another day at another time than the presidential.) If Obama wins by say 3 or 4%, then there is enough room to win with split ticket independent voters. Of course, if Romney can find a way to win Wisconsin he will probably pull any Republican over with him.

 So, who do I think has the best chance to beat Baldwin ? I'll list them in order and give my reasons.

#1. Thompson is the most appealing candidate to moderate swing type voters. I think there is a good chance this election may become a "vote what 'ya know" election. Meaning some people may not like everything Obama has done, but at least they know what you get with him and are not willing to risk a bet on Romney. This is one of Romney's major problems by the way. Well, in the same way, people know what they get with Thompson and can feel safe picking him. And let's face it, regardless of what you think about him, Tommy knows how to run a campaign, the man will shake every hand and kiss every baby in Wisconsin twice before this thing is over. His problem is that Baldwin can say, "There is tired old Tommy, saying the same old things." Even though she has been in Congress a long time, she can sell herself as a new face verses Tommy's old one.


#2. Neumann can show the clearest contrast between conservative ideas and Baldwin's liberal ones. But, he will have to point out Baldwin is a Madison far left wing wacko to moderates without allowing himself to be painted as a far right wacko (Which I don't think he is, but that is what the left will try to do.). Neumann, while unsuccessfully, has run statewide campaigns before and he does have a congressional voting record to stand on. I'll take comparing his record, especially on government spending, to Baldwin's any day. Neumann's problem is even a lot of Republicans don't like him because sometimes he comes off as a jerk (Sorry, but it's true.). That is actually why I like him, I call it being feisty, but it rubs some folks the wrong way. (I have forgiven Mark for his campaign against Gov. Walker.)


#3. Fitzgerald's campaign is easy, as I said before, "You voted for Gov. Walker twice, we did good things, so vote for me." The problem I have is that Jeff doesn't have a very engaging personality whereas Baldwin does in spades. I don't really know how good of a campaigner he is either. For what it is worth, I think the connection to Walker could go a long ways for him and I doubt he has too much dirt out there to muddy him up with. There is very little daylight between my #2 and #3.


#4. Hovde's biggest asset is also his biggest liability, money. The mudslinging that has gone on in the Republican primary is baby poop compared to what the Democrats will do with him. Fair or not, I can see the ads now. Hovde, one of those big bankers who caused the financial crisis and got rich while we all were starving. Hovde and Romney, two peas in a rich man's pod. Hovde, super rich guy who hasn't lived in Wisconsin for 25 years now wants to buy your senate seat. Shall I go on ? On the other hand, having a boatload of money and being able to outspend your rival 4 or 5 to one is a powerful thing. The reason I put Hovde last on my list ? To me, the negatives are much larger than his pile of cash and it makes him by far the most risky candidate. This also makes him a distant 4th place on my list.


 Who should you vote for ? I never tell folks that, I just tell them to vote their conscience. And that is where I am having my problem deciding. The ideological conservative in me says to vote for Neumann, that is why I supported him in the first place. My heart tells me to vote Fitzgerald because we owe him a shot for his work pushing Walker's reforms through the Assembly. But, my desire to beat Baldwin is beginning to override those things. The more I look at it, the more I think that while Tommy may be an old horse, he may be the best horse we got. So, who am I going to vote for ? I'll tell you next Wednesday.

(*Note, Romney picking his VP before the primary sure would help me make up my mind.)