Walker's Last Stand

   By Donna Cole

 MediaPolitical has been doing some analysis of the polls being done in advance of Gov. Walker's recall election, this coupled with some anecdotal evidence has brought me to a rather troubling conclusion. I think Walker is not looking good for winning this election. Here is my case.


 The Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls has Gov. Walker ahead of Mayor Barrett by 6.4% one week before the election. All the polls RCP uses have Walker between 4 and 6% ahead, but one poll, the WeAskAmerica poll, shows the governor at +12. This poll is an outlier and shouldn't be trusted. When you remove this poll and just average the others, it puts Walker at an even +5 over Barrett. All these polls have roughly a 3.5% margin of error.


 That margin of error is important to remember, because there are some factors that these pollsters are missing. The first problem I see with these pollster's methodology is that I think they are under sampling Milwaukee County, we will return to that later. The second problem I have is that they are under estimating voter turnout. These two things are obviously interconnected.


 The pollsters only have previous, and most recent, high turnout elections to use as models for voter turnout in this election. The 2008 presidential election had just shy of 3 million total votes cast in Wisconsin. The 2010 gubernatorial election had just over 2.1 million total votes cast.


 Most of these polls are using, or leaning to, the 2.1 million number as a baseline rather than the 3 million number. I think this recall election could go north of that 3 million number. This could and perhaps will be the highest voter turnout election in Wisconsin history.


 Here is where I turn to my anecdotal evidence to prove this. It has been widely reported that Wisconsin Jobs Now, the SEIU union front group, has 20 vans in Milwaukee and since early voting began a week ago they have been hauling hundreds of folks to the downtown Milwaukee Municipal Building to vote.


 Other union backed, and liberal community organizing groups, are also engaged in this. MediaPolitical has reported on the liberal group Democracy for America (DFA) parachuting in out of state organizers and pumping millions of dollars into this effort.


 MediaPolitical can now report that DFA has pulled all their money, up to $14 million bucks, from buying any TV ads to concentrate it all on their ground effort. What is my proof of this ? The following is from an  April 24th official DFA email;

"On top of our massive ground campaign, we're going to have volunteers making tens of thousands of phone calls. We'll even be on the air with hard-hitting ads featuring real Wisconsinites telling their personal stories -- the sort of ads that will cut through the spin and consultant-driven attack ads right before elections."

 Make note that they are claiming to "be on air" with ads. I have yet to see a single TV ad from them, and we are not going to. Why ? Another DFA email from May 23rd provides the answer;

"They're drowning us in attack ads, but the polls haven't moved an inch. We were neck and neck six months ago, and we're neck and neck today. There are virtually no undecided voters left, so it all comes down to Getting Out The Vote. Whoever best turns out their base will win."

 The DFA lets you know where and how they are spending their money right there in that email. So what are these groups spending their money on ?


 I have a personal friend whose son works for a large commercial fleet vehicle rental/ lease company in Milwaukee County. This friend told me over the Memorial Day weekend that this company has 63 passenger vans and shuttle buses, and that all 63 of these vehicles have been rented by these liberal groups through the election. I have no real way to verify this, but I did talk to the person's son who told me this was correct, so I take them at their word. I would also note, these liberal front groups rented these vans for a reason. That reason is because they plan on using them.


 Last week, Mayor Barrett's pollster, Fred Yang, released some internal campaign polling showing that Barrett was 2 points behind Walker and given the margin of error, this made the election a statistical tie. This polling data was discounted by most of the media because Yang didn't release any of the collection data or other numbers. One thing overlooked in Yang's release was that, and this was reported, he said Barrett held a significant advantage over Walker among "non-2010 voters."


 What was lost on the media is what Yang meant here. Most took this to mean young people, college student types who were not old enough to vote in 2010. Those few young people wouldn't, or couldn't, really move the polls and that is why folks discounted it. This is not what Yang meant at all. He was referring to people who did vote in 2008, but didn't vote in 2010. That is why he used the term, "non-2010 voters" verses saying new or first time voters.


 So, who are these non-2010 voters ? They are black folks in Milwaukee who do not normally vote. I know liberals will jump on me for saying the following and call me a racist, but facts are reality. Look at these numbers. In 2008, Obama got 319,819 votes in Milwaukee County. In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Mayor Barrett got 209,929. That is a difference of nearly 110,000 votes.


 I would argue that a large majority, maybe 90,000, of those 110,000 votes were black folks who came out and voted for Obama, and they made the effort to vote in that election for one reason. Because President Obama is black. Those same folks didn't vote in 2010, because they didn't care. Many of those folks probably didn't know an election was even going on in 2010. Some may not like this statement, but I strongly believe it to be true. I think the data points to this. I also believe most of these folks have no clue, or care, that the recall election is going on.


 This is what all the vans are for and the all the money the lefty groups are spending in Milwaukee County is for, to find these 110,000 folks and get them to the polls to vote for Barrett. I'll be blunt here, these union/ liberal groups are going into every crack house in Milwaukee and finding anybody they can drag down to the Municipal Building. And if they have to buy them a fish fry or a pack of smokes to do it, so be it.


 Just to drive this 110,000 voter number home to you and so you can see how much it means to the left, I will offer you a little bit of another DFA email, this is from April 20th;

"We're going to knock on 127,353 doors in 35 days -- that's 3,638 doors a day. We're going to make it happen with 36 canvassers backed up by hundreds of volunteers across the state. But in order to start knocking on doors on time, we need to raise $110,000 by the end of the month (April)."

 Why didn't DFA say they needed $100,000, or a $115,000, or a million bucks ? If you are asking for free money, why not ask for $1 million bucks ? Why that odd fundraising number of $110,000 ? Why set your sights so low in the political fundraising game ? Because it is not a figure in monetary terms, it is code for the 110,000 Milwaukee County folks they need to get out to vote. They know where to look to find their margin of victory and they are telegraphing it in this email. It is a message to ground troops. If you think I am weaving a conspiracy theory here, you explain the 110,000 number coincidence and why that number is so important to them ?


 Let's now take a look at the liberal bureaucrats at the City of Milwaukee Municipal Building. Over the Memorial Day weekend, they not only kept the early voting polls open on Saturday, they opened them on Monday, Memorial Day. When have you ever heard of a government bureaucrat working on a weekend, much less a government holiday ? I'll give you the answer, never.


 Last Saturday (May 26th), Rev. Jessie Jackson and Milwaukee's Rep. Gwen Moore held a get out the vote rally in Milwaukee, with the unions cooking a big BBQ for all who attended (and voted). Those inner city folks went and voted, then ate free union BBQ. This event was not reported by any of the main stream media, however, it was a very large event.


 If you do not believe this was a coordinated effort between the unions, the media and the liberal bureaucrats at the Municipal Building to get out those "non-2010 (and black) voters", I got a bridge in the upper peninsula I'd like to sell ya'. Also, remember all those vans ? I told you they needed them for a reason.


 Now, let us look back at those poll numbers that have Gov. Walker up by 5%. Those polls all roughly have a statistical margin of error of 3.5%. I think I have made a solid case of which way you can push that margin. This puts us at Walker + 1.5%. Here is where we add in another important factor.


 While this is a grey area, and liberals dispute it, at least on right side of the aisle it is an established fact that the Wisconsin Democrat Party machine, in a high turn out statewide election, can produce somewhere between 1.5 and 2% fraudulent votes. These fraud votes can be cast in many different ways, a couple simple examples are: Folks using fake or bogus credentials to register and vote on election day, or folks who double, triple, even vote 10 or more times in one election.


 I admit, it hard to get a full grasp of just how many votes this accounts for, but one way to begin to wrap your brain around how many votes this is, is to look at how many voter registration cards are mailed out after an election. Then look at how many are either returned as undeliverable or just not signed and returned at all. This can begin to give you some idea of the number of fraud votes. When one looks at just the Milwaukee County returned to sender voter registration cards, you start to understand the numbers get rather large pretty quickly.


 Here is another fact you must add in. The Democrats were very smart when they filed Constitutional complaints with the courts over the newly passed Wisconsin voter I.D. laws. They were very smart with respect of when they filed them. I use the word "them" because they filed two, this was just to further muck up the court system.


 The Democrats knew at the time the voter I.D. law would stand after the Wisconsin Supreme Court reviewed it, so they had to wait and file these cases late, before the case had time to face the State Supreme Court and knowing the lower court liberal judges in Madison would strike it down thus not putting it into effect for the recall election. The Democrats do not want the I.D. law in effect so they can keep their cheating machine running for the recall.


 I fully believe there are around 20,000 Democrats, minimum, who double (or more) vote in Wisconsin. The raw numbers tend to show this, when one puts poll numbers before an election up against the numbers after. One can only speculate about this, but if you smell poop, there probably is some poop around somewhere close.


 Since we were talking about the courts here, I will give you a Perry Mason moment. Add all the facts I have laid before you together, and Gov. Walker loses this recall election by .8 to 1.3%. The margin of loss is important because it brings into account any legal challenges, like recounts, that can be made. We will come back to those numbers later.


 The last factor is voter apathy and complacency on the right, that being supporters of Gov. Walker. I honestly don't think many Republicans in Southeastern Wisconsin understand what a media cesspool out and up state Wisconsin is. The liberal media has basically been reporting this election as Walker up by 5, "no problemo for El Walker". They are doing this for a reason, they want folks out and up state to think, "Well, Walker doesn't need my vote that bad, he has got this thing in the bag. I'm gonna hit the tavern, it is taco Tuesday and I want to get there before all the tacos are gone."


 Here is my final analysis and thoughts on the recall election. I do not believe there is any possible way a pollster can create a model to accurately poll for this election without a margin of error of 5 points. I think there will be somewhere around 3 million votes cast in this election. I don't think if Walker can get over 1.25 to 1.3 million votes he can win. Walker needs 1.5 million to put it away with a mandate.


 I think this election will come down to a few thousand, maybe even a few hundred votes. I give Mayor Barrett even odds for winning it, 50-50. I give it a better than 50% chance of going to a recount, and 90% chance of that going to the courts. I give Gov. Walker about a 45% chance of winning this election out right and without challenge. 


 It is not going to be enough in this election for right wingers to just vote and go home. We do not have the cheating machine the Democrats have or the get out the "crack house" vote efforts the community organizing/ union groups have on our side. I fully believe these groups will get those 110,000 votes out. I also believe every single Republican in this state is going to have to find somebody, at least one other person, "a non 2010 voter", to take to the polls and vote for Walker.


 If you are a Republican, and/or a supporter of Gov. Walker, you have got to find that voter. If Granny Sally is in a rest home, you need to load her up in her wheelchair and take her to the polls. If Uncle Earl is holed up in his cabin up north and doesn't care about all this, you gotta figure out how to get him to the polls and vote for Walker.


 I can continue on with these things, but I hope I made my point here. If the supporters of Gov. Walker cannot put somewhere close to 1.5 million ballots in the box on election day, say hello to Gov. Barrett. And yes, I hope I scared the crap out of right wingers here, because that was my intent.


 In conclusion, as a right wing political analyst, I have to put personal feelings aside and think about the broader ideological war. This recall election is no longer about Gov. Walker to me, it is the Wisconsin silent majority's last stand. I don't think I need to explain the implications of being on the losing side of a last stand.