Those Indy Swingers are looking good.

  By Donna Cole

 This LA Times' story, "Poll: Swing voters lean to Obama but identify closer with Romney" proves something that I, and many others, have known for a long time.


 Independent swing voters are really just folks who do not have many core political beliefs. They don't follow political issues or politicians messages closely and they tend to vote for the person they believe they like in a personal sense. An example being women who vote for a female candidate over a male, regardless of their party or the issues, only because it is another woman.


 The most important thing is that these "Indy Swingers" are the ones who usually settle elections, especially close ones. This is why polling them is so valuable. (Indy Swingers account for roughly 15% of all voters.) The LA Times' reports on a poll done by Global Strategy Group for the lefty think tank Third Way. The polls findings are quite interesting and very revealing.


 They found that these Indy Swingers lean to Obama 44% to 38% for Romney. Obama won 57% of this vote in '08. These same voters when asked to identify themselves on the political spectrum, they align more with Romney than Obama. The poll's margin of error is 5.1%. Probably a reflection of how hard it is to poll these type voters. Wisconsin was one of the 12 states polled.


 This is proof they are not listening closely to the political messages from the candidates or they just feel they personally like Obama more without much regard for what comes out of his mouth. This could also be due to the fact they have not become interested in the election yet and thus not paid much attention. These voters will probably not pay much attention all the way through election day.


 The first main thing this poll found that should encourage Republicans is, Indy Swingers don't buy the whole liberal economic fairness argument. From the LA Times report;

"The poll found that the “fairness argument,” which some Democrats have advocated as a message for the 2012 election, does not resonate with swing independents. This segment of voters does not consider income inequality a top concern, they generally think the existing system is fair, and they view themselves as haves, not have-nots."

"Their top economic concerns are the deficit, growth and jobs, not economic equality."

"Asked what was the most important way to make the economy stronger, 55% said providing “more economic opportunity for Americans to succeed through hard work.” Just 19% said “create more economic security so all Americans can withstand life’s misfortunes.”

“No matter what definition of fairness one chooses, swing independents are not wooed by a fairness message – rather, it often seemed to skirt their deepest economic concerns,” Diggles and Erickson wrote." (Diggles and Erickson are the poll analysts for Third Way.)

Then we get what seems like a confused message from the poll. From the Times' piece;

"Fifty-one percent of swing independents said they would select a candidate who argues that the country needs an economy based on opportunity while 43% said they would choose the candidate who argues for an economy based on fairness."

 Given that this was a very similar to the previous question, which was so lopsided, 55% to 19%, these voters must not be making a connection between the governments role in the economy and/ or the politician's messages on it. Still though, these folks lean solidly to the right.


 The Third Way's analysts warn the Democrats to not mix the “populist fairness argument,” with an “opportunity message.” The LA Times' report concludes with this;

"That mixed message doesn’t work,” they wrote. “Because of their preconceived notions of Democrats and President Obama, the fairness message is stickier with these voters – it confirms what they already think they know about policymakers to their left."

 What can we take away from these poll numbers ? Many people think they personally like President Obama. I think I know the reasons for this, there are two. These two reasons are tied together. Whether or not the pollsters want to admit this, literally all of these Indy Swingers are white.


 These folks didn't listen to the issues in the '08 election and McCain had zero likeability. More importantly, these Indy Swingers saw a chance to vote for a black man thinking it would cure all the racial issues in this nation. Some have used the term "white guilt" to describe this. The second part of this is, they do not want to admit to pollsters they were wrong in that vote.


 This is why everything in this poll says these voters should be strongly supporting Romney, yet the Indy Swingers still say they back President Obama 44% to Romney's 38%. This is actually good news. I think a lot of these folks are not being truthful with the pollsters on this question. They will not admit their '08 mistake, but they will be truthful in the voting booth and that vote will not be for Obama a second time.


 While the racial issue was not there, this is similar to why Carter polled high literally until the election day when he was crushed by Reagan. People wanted to like Carter, but they couldn't admit they didn't. At least until they looked at the ballot. They didn't make the same mistake they made in '76.


 Many will disagree with that part of my analysis, especially those folks who self impose free speech regulations in the name of political correctness and seek to impose their regulations on me. I'm not a racist for saying these things about this poll, no matter how bad you want me to be. Those are facts, not racism.


 The second main thing Republicans should take away from this poll is, these Indy Swingers are very open to the right's message. As a matter of fact, a majority of them already say they believe it. What the Republicans problem is, these folks are not hearing that this message is coming from them.


 Romney is never going to win the likeability factor against Obama. The only way Romney can overcome this is by making clear he is the bearer of the ideas the Indy Swingers say they believe, and more importantly, that President Obama is not. If Romney can do this, drill it in these Indy Swingers heads, who tend to not listen closely, he will crush Obama in the election. In the same way Reagan crushed Carter.


 This all should be good news to Republicans. So, the question now is: Can Romney do it ? That remains to be seen.